Temporal pattern, spatial distribution, and factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in Brazil

Ribeiro et al.


To describe temporal and spatial patterns and identify the factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in Brazil.


Ecological study of young Brazilians aged 15-24 years with reported HIV/AIDS, from 2001 to 2021. The Joinpoint method was used for the temporal analysis. Spatial clusters were detected using Bayesian methods, spatial autocorrelation, Getis-Ord Gi*, and scan techniques. Four non-spatial and spatial regression models were used to identify factors associated with the result. All statistical analyses considered p < 0.05.


In Brazil, the average incidence was 12.29 per 100 000 inhabitants, with an annual increase of 7.3% in the period 2007-2014 and a subsequent 3.4% decrease in 2014-2021. A high-high pattern and hotspots were observed, mainly in municipalities in the South, Southeast, Central-West, and North regions. The primary cluster was located in 572 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, with the highest relative risks in Manaus (Amazonas) and Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso). The illiteracy rate (β = -0.08), GINI Index (β = -3.74) and Family Health Strategy coverage (β = -0.70) were negatively associated with the result. In contrast, the Firjan Municipal Development Index (β = 2.37), Social Vulnerability Index (β = 6.30), percentage of Bolsa Família recipients (β = 0.04), and per capita income (β = 0.008) showed a positive association.


There was an upward trend in the incidence of HIV/AIDS until 2014, followed by a decline until 2021. High-rate clusters were concentrated in municipalities in the North, South, Southeast and Central-West regions in particular. Indicators of socioeconomic vulnerability had positive or negative effects on the result, depending on the territory investigated.

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