El Niño in the Americas, 2026–2027: public health risks and preparedness priorities

Pan American Health Organization

8 JULY 2026, WASHINGTON, D.C.— El Niño conditions forecast for 2026–2027 signal overlapping public health and humanitarian risks across the Americas. Exceptionally warm global ocean and atmospheric temperatures may amplify or modify expected climatic anomalies, including droughts and floods, and their associated public health impacts. Although the intensity and geographic distribution of these impacts remain uncertain, historical patterns and current forecasts indicate increased risks of both drought-related and flood-related emergencies, which should be closely monitored to anticipate and mitigate emerging public health threats. These risks may be compounded in countries and territories with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including food insecurity, limited access to safe water, migration, displacement, poverty, recurrent outbreaks, and constrained health services.

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